With the passing of Pope Francis last month, the Catholic Church will be preparing for a conclave to select a new pope. With the conclave starting on Wednesday 7th May, we won’t have to wait too long to find out who the betting odds suggest will be the next pope, the papal name that’ll be chosen, and much more.
Next Pope Betting Odds
| Name | Country | Odds | Odds as % |
| Pietro Parolin | Italy | 5/2 | 28.6% |
| Luis Antonio Tagle | Philippines | 3/1 | 25% |
| Matteo Zuppi | Italy | 9/2 | 18.2% |
| Pier Battista Pizzaballa | Italy | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| Peter Turkson | Ghana | 13/2 | 13.3% |
| Peter Erdo | Hungary | 10/1 | 9.1% |
| Robert Sarah | Guinea | 10/1 | 9.1% |
| Mario Grech | Malta | 20/1 | 4.8% |
| Jean-Marc Aveline | France | 22/1 | 4.3% |
| Fridolin Ambongo Besungu | DR Congo | 22/1 | 4.3% |
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Next pope betting: The frontrunners to replace Pope Francis
If the latest betting odds are anything to go by, two names have emerged as clear frontrunners to become the next pope – Pietro Parolin and Luis Antonio Tagle.
Cardinal Parolin, who is presently the Secretary of State for the Vatican, has played a pivotal role in sensitive negotiations, notably the Holy See’s agreement with China regarding the selection of bishops. His vast diplomatic background and moderate viewpoint position him as a formidable candidate likely to receive considerable backing within the Church.
In contrast, Cardinal Tagle is renowned for his engaging and pastoral leadership approach. As the leader of the Vatican’s missionary evangelisation initiatives, he has significantly contributed to the Church’s expansion in Asia and Africa. Should he be selected, he would mark a historic milestone as the first Asian pope. Additionally, there is ongoing speculation regarding the potential election of the first black pope in contemporary history, with Cardinal Peter Turkson being a prominent figure in this context.
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle is regarded as a leading candidate for the position of the next pope. In addition to the two primary contenders, there is ongoing speculation regarding the potential election of the first black pope in contemporary history, with Cardinal Peter Turkson being a significant figure in this context. Renowned for his commitment to social justice, economic disparity, and environmental concerns, particularly climate change, Turkson would embody a forward-thinking option for the future trajectory of the Church.
When looking at the prospective popes by nationality, a European pope is odds on at 8/13, ahead of Asia at 11/4 and Africa at 4/1 (on 10Bet). North America is far less likely at 25/1, with a second successive South American almost entirely out of the equation, and priced up at 66/1. An Oceanic next pope is priced at 100/1 with BoyleSports, in what is a highly unlikely outcome.
How to bet on who the next pope will be
You’ll be pleased to hear that betting on the next pope is a relatively straightforward process as a number of online betting sites are offering next pope betting odds. Below, our team of betting experts have provided a step-by-step guide on how to bet on the next pope.
- Sign up with one of our recommended betting sites such as Sky Bet or Paddy Power.
- Deposit using your chosen payment method.
- Navigate to the betting market for the next pope. On both Paddy Power and Sky Bet, this can be found under ‘current affairs’, while other UK betting sites may list the odds in their ‘specials’ category, so be sure to check that section as well, as it can vary with different betting sites.
- Add your chosen selection to the betslip.
- Choose your stake and place your bet on your chosen betting site.
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Next Papal Name: Pope Francis II remains the favourite
The next papal name for the new pope is chosen once elected. Recent history suggests that conservative popes have chosen traditional names such as Benedict and John. However, that’s not always the case, as Pope Francis chose his name in honour of St Francis of Assisi. You’ll be able to bet on what the new papal name with Ladbrokes, who are a great UK betting site to use if you’re not already signed up with them.
Francis II remains the 5/1 favourite to be the papal name of the new pope, whilst John Paul, John, Benedict, and Leo make up the top-five choices in the betting odds. Most other popular options would be seen as nods to previous popes, while it’s seen as a less than likely 16/1 that the fourth Pope Innocent could be installed in the weeks ahead.
| Papal Name | Odds | Odds as % |
| Francis II | 5/1 | 17% |
| John Paul III | 6/1 | 14% |
| John XXIV | 6/1 | 14% |
| Benedict XVII | 7/1 | 13% |
| Leo XIV | 10/1 | 9.1% |
| Paul VII | 10/1 | 9.1% |
| Gregory XVII | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| Stephen X | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| Clement XV | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| Pius XIII | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| Innocent | 16/1 | 2.9% |
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Total ballots: Two-day process expected
In addition to betting on who will become the next pope, some UK betting sites are offering additional markets to bet on. With BetMGM, you can bet on how many ballots it will take before a new pope is elected. The most popular betting range is between five and six ballots. However, if you think the new pope will be chosen inside one or two days of voting, then you could be tempted by the 20/1 price on BoyleSports.
In terms of days, the process begins on Wednesday 7th May, and it’s 11/1 on Sky Bet that we’ll hear a final outcome before the day is out. More likely, according to the likes of Betfair, is that the process will span either two or three days. A result on Thursday is currently most likely (6/5), with Friday next (7/4).
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