Paraguay and Australia both head into tonight’s Group D match on three points, having lost to USA but beaten Turkiye. A draw would suit both sides, guaranteeing progression, but will they oblige? Read on for our Paraguay vs Australia tips below, and find out how you can get £30 in free bets for the World Cup with bet365.
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Paraguay vs Australia betting tips & predictions
Paraguay and Australia meet in a decisive Group D fixture at the Levi’s Stadium on Friday, with kick-off at 3am BST. With a place in the knockout stages at stake for both nations, a draw would be a mutually beneficial result, and our expert has analysed the key markets; read on to find out the reasoning behind his selections.
Draw @ 5/4
Match – Over 20.5 Shots @ 4/5
Half Time Correct Score: 0-0 @ 6/5
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A Mutually Beneficial Stalemate in Group D?
The situation in Group D is finely poised heading into the final matchday. With the USA having already secured top spot, both Paraguay and Australia sit on three points, knowing that a draw would very likely see both sides advance to the Round of 32.
This unique permutation has not been lost on the bookmakers. The odds for a draw have shortened significantly, carrying an implied probability of around 44%, making it the favourite in the 1X2 market. Such pricing is rare and typically reserved for scenarios where a stalemate suits both teams.
Given that four points should be sufficient for even a third-placed team to progress, neither side has a strong incentive to commit bodies forward and risk a defeat. Expect a tactical affair where both teams prioritise defensive shape and look to conserve energy for the more demanding knockout rounds.
Paraguay vs Australia tip 1: Draw @ 5/4
Shot Count to Defy a Cautious Game?
While the match context points towards a low-event game, the data from previous fixtures suggests the shot count could still be high. Both of Paraguay’s matches in the tournament so far have seen plenty of attempts on goal, and this market could offer value irrespective of the cautious game state.
Paraguay’s matchday two fixture against Turkey produced a remarkable 39 total shots. Although Gustavo Alfaro’s side were on the back foot for large periods, they contributed to the tally, and their opening game against the USA also saw a healthy 25 shots in total.
Australia, on the other hand, were involved in a more timid affair against the USA, with just 15 shots registered in their 2-0 defeat. However, the Socceroos will be keen to offer more attacking threat here, and even if both teams are risk-averse, the potential for long-range efforts and set-piece opportunities could see the shot count climb over the 20.5 line.
Paraguay vs Australia tip 2: Match – Over 20.5 Shots @ 4/5
A Cagey First Half on the Cards
If the game is destined to end in a draw, it stands to reason that the opening 45 minutes will be particularly cagey. Neither nation will want to concede early and be forced to chase the game, making a goalless first half a highly probable outcome.
Paraguay have demonstrated their defensive solidity, a trait that served them well during qualification where they conceded just 10 goals in 18 matches. Their approach in this tournament has been similarly pragmatic, generating low xG figures of 0.54 against the USA and 0.32 against Turkey, indicating a willingness to sit deep and absorb pressure.
With Australia also content to secure the point needed for progression, there is little motivation for them to force the issue from the opening whistle. A tentative start is expected, with both managers likely instructing their players to maintain discipline and avoid costly errors, which points towards a 0-0 scoreline at the interval.
Paraguay vs Australia tip 3: Half Time Correct Score: 0-0 @ 6/5
