Brazil face Japan in the knockout stages of the 2026 tournament on Monday, 29th June, with the match kicking off at 6pm.
We can share our betting expert’s top tips for this match in the round-of-32, and we can also reveal World Cup offers from some of the UK’s best new betting sites, all in one place.
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With the knockout rounds beginning at this year’s World Cup, now is the perfect time to sign up to some of the best new betting sites in the UK to take advantage of their sign up offers.
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Brazil vs Japan Betting Tips
Our betting expert has analysed the form and data for both sides; read on for the analysis behind his selections.
Seleção Set for next round
Brazil demonstrated their pedigree by topping Group C, a feat they have achieved in every tournament since 1982. This consistency sets a high standard, and Carlo Ancelotti’s side is expected to navigate this initial knockout hurdle against a resilient but ultimately outmatched Japan team.
The historical context heavily favours the South American side. The last time Brazil were eliminated in their first knockout match was back in 1990 against Argentina. They possess far more quality throughout their squad, a factor amplified by the unfortunate injury to Japan’s key creative player, Takefusa Kubo, which severely dents the Samurai Blue’s attacking potential.
Japan, while unbeaten in their last ten fixtures, have a history of falling short at this precise stage. They have never advanced beyond the Round of 16 in their seven previous tournament appearances. Against a Brazilian team that has won seven of their ten all-time meetings, history points towards a familiar outcome.
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Ancelotti’s Attack to Pepper Japan’s Goal
Brazil’s attacking machinery has clicked into gear after a slow start. They managed a formidable 21 shots in their final group game against Scotland, and a similar level of offensive pressure is anticipated against Japan. This market looks particularly appealing given their recent performances.
The tactical setup under Ancelotti is a key factor. Matheus Cunha’s deployment as a ‘false nine’ has been instrumental, drawing defenders out of position and creating space for Vinicius Jr. to exploit. The Real Madrid forward took eight shots himself against Scotland and will be central to their attacking efforts once more.
Precedent also supports this selection. In the previous tournament, Brazil registered 18 shots when they faced Asian opposition in the first knockout round, dispatching South Korea 4-1. Japan’s defensive resilience will be tested to its limits; the last time they faced a team of similar stature, England, they conceded 19 shots.
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Samurai Blue Capable of Breaching Brazilian Defence
Despite their attacking prowess, Brazil’s defence has shown vulnerabilities that a well-organised Japan side can exploit. Conceding an expected goals against (xGA) figure of 2.64 in a group containing Haiti and Scotland suggests a certain level of defensive frailty. They allowed a total of 35 shots across those three games, with 11 hitting the target.
Japan have been efficient in front of goal, converting an impressive 24.14% of their shots in the tournament so far. They created 3.92 xG across their three group matches and demonstrated their ability to score against high-calibre opposition by netting twice against the Netherlands. They are well-equipped to capitalise on any defensive lapses from Brazil.
Even Scotland, who lost 3-0 to Brazil, managed to generate 1.05 xG and cause problems for Ancelotti’s backline. Japan possess greater attacking quality than the Scots and have scored in their last eleven matches. This suggests they have more than enough firepower to find the net, making the both teams to score market a strong value proposition.
