Prediction markets are being talked about more and more. They’ve already taken the US by storm, and are heading over to the UK too. But what exactly are they, how do they work and what’s the difference when compared to betting sites?
We’ll answer all these questions, and point you towards the UK’s best prediction markets, which you can sign up to right away.
What are prediction markets and how do they work?
Prediction markets are a place where you can engage in a contract, either buying or selling the likelihood of a particular event happening.
How can I get involved in prediction markets: Step-by-step guide
The easiest way to understand how you can get involved in prediction markets is by using an example.
Here we’ll imagine you want to take a view on who’ll win the 2028 US Presidential Election, and we’ll use the percentages quoted on easyBet.
- Sign up and navigate to the predictions market you’re interested in – in this case it’s under politics.
- Find the selection you want to enter a contract on, and view the percentages associated with the prediction – we’ll go for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who is given an 11% chance of winning the Election and 90.5% chance of losing. Note, the percentages don’t add up to 100% as this is how the site makes its money.
- Click your preferred option, in the same way you’d add a sports bet to a betslip.
- Add your stake, to see how much you’d win if your prediction happened – in this case, backing Yes at 11% for £10 would return £90.91.
- Assuming you’re happy, make your prediction and wait for the outcome to happen.
What’s the difference between prediction markets and betting?
Prediction markets tend to use different terminology than if you were betting, even though the processes involved are very similar. The table below breaks down the key differences between sports betting markets and predictions markets.
| Sports Betting Markets | Predictions Markets | |
|---|---|---|
| Example operators | bet365, Betfred | US: Kalshi, Polymarket UK: easyBet, Matchbook, Smarkets |
| What subjects do they cover? | Mainly sports + occasionally politics and TV | Virtually anything eg, existence of aliens, words said during speeches, country invasions |
| What terminology is used? | Bets, betting, gambling | Entering a contract, trading, having a portfolio |
| How are markets displayed? | Decimal or fractional odds, eg, 4.0 or 3/1 | Percentages, eg, Yes 25%, No 75% |
| How do markets look on site? | Descriptive eg, match winner, correct score, next goalscorer | Question form, eg, Will the US confirm aliens exists?, When will US/Iran agree a nuclear deal? |
What are the best betting sites for prediction markets?
Prediction markets are relatively new to the UK, but there are an ever-increasing number of options available.
easyBet launched in October 2024, and have expanded into predictions in recent months.
Smarkets have been around for far longer, but their recent rebrand to become ‘Smarkets Predictions’ certainly signals their intent to exploit the up-and-coming prediction markets.
Matchbook is another site to keep an eye on, with their ADI Predictstreet market platform promoted extensively throughout the 2026 World Cup.
Betfair is another site to consider.
As things stand, their exchange markets are displayed in decimal odds format, but they still operate in a very similar way to prediction markets.
We also have to mention the likes of Kalshi and Polymarket.
Although neither of the two accept UK customers at present, both prediction sites are accessible, and so can give you the best possible insight into the types of markets you can expect to see.
Can you actually make money on prediction markets?
The answer to whether you can make money on prediction markets is the same one we’d give when asking about betting sites.
It is possible to get individual predictions correct, and it’s feasible to win money in the medium-term, but very few people can consistently make money on betting or prediction markets in the long-term.
Do prediction markets count as gambling?
Prediction markets are generally considered as gambling, particularly in the UK.
With sites like Matchbook and easyBet, predictions markets are offered to UK customers within a regulated betting environment. Although the interface resembles a modern prediction market, featuring probabilities, Yes/No positions and the ability to trade, the underlying activity is still betting.
It gets a little more complicated with sites such as Kalshi and Polymarket. They operate as prediction markets rather than traditional betting sites and may be regulated differently depending on the country. Just because they aren’t treated as normal betting sites elsewhere doesn’t mean the same rules apply in the UK.
Are predictions markets legal in the UK?
Yes. Prediction markets can legally operate in Great Britain, but they generally need to be licensed as gambling products.
What isn’t permitted is an overseas prediction-market operator simply offering its product to British customers without the necessary UK licence. The Gambling Commission specifically says unlicensed prediction-market operators should not target or transact with consumers in Great Britain