Argentina continue their title defence with a quarter-final clash against Switzerland. The match is set for an early 2am kick-off on Sunday, 12th July.
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Argentina vs Switzerland Betting Tips
Our betting expert has analysed the key stats and markets for this knockout tie; read on for the analysis behind his selections.
- Argentina to qualify @ 1/3
- Match – Over 32.5 Throw Ins @ 5/6
- Argentina Asian Handicap -0.5, -1.0 @ 10/11
Argentina Backed to Advance
Argentina have navigated two challenging knockout matches, requiring extra-time to see off Cape Verde before a dramatic late comeback to defeat Egypt 3-2. That victory extended their winning streak to 12 matches, and they have scored more than 1.5 goals in 11 of those outings.
Despite the scares, Lionel Scaloni’s side remain one of the primary contenders to lift the trophy. The bookmakers’ odds suggest they have around a 20% implied probability of winning the tournament for a second consecutive time.
Switzerland are a well-drilled and disciplined unit who will aim to frustrate their opponents. However, Argentina’s superior individual quality in attacking areas should prove to be the decisive factor in securing a place in the semi-finals.
The last time these nations met in this competition was in 2014, when a late extra-time goal was required for Argentina to progress. A similarly tight contest could be on the cards, but the reigning champions have the tools to get the job done.
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High Throw Count Expected in Cagey Affair
While Argentina’s matches at this tournament have not consistently produced high throw-in counts, the line of 32.5 appears low based on their most recent fixture. Their Round of 16 match against Egypt saw a total of 44 throws as Argentina pushed with urgency to overturn a deficit.
A similarly hard-fought battle for possession is expected against a robust Swiss side. This should lead to plenty of stoppages and balls going out of play, creating opportunities for the throw-in count to climb.
Switzerland’s matches in North America have seen an average of 35.8 throws per game. Their contest with Colombia saw 30 in normal time, but that was a goalless affair. The introduction of goals here should force one team to chase the game, which typically inflates the throw-in numbers.
Historical data from the previous tournament also supports this angle. Argentina’s four knockout games saw an average of 42.25 throws in normal time, while Switzerland’s single knockout match produced 45.
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Handicap Market Offers Value on Champions
The Asian Handicap market has proven profitable for those backing Argentina during their title defence. Bettors siding with Scaloni’s team on the handicap line have seen a 37.0% return on investment across the first five matches of the competition.
This selection looks a sensible proposition when considering Switzerland’s attacking output. They struggled to create meaningful chances against Colombia, generating just 0.3 xG, and their lack of a creative spark is worsened by the likely absence of their key midfielder Jonathan Manzambi.
In contrast, Argentina possess strong underlying defensive metrics. Despite conceding five goals so far, they have restricted opponents to just 0.60 expected goals (xG) and 1.80 shots on target per game, both of which are the second-best figures in the entire tournament.
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