Belgium and Senegal face off in a crucial Round of 32 knockout match this evening at 9pm. Neither team set alight the group stage, and it’s the perfect opportunity for both to kick-start what could be a historic World Cup run.
The winner of this tie meets USA or Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Round of 16. Our team of betting experts have revealed their top tips for the match, alongside some of the best sign up offers from new betting sites.
Belgium vs Senegal Betting Offers & Free Bets
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Belgium vs Senegal Betting Tips
Our expert has analysed the key stats and markets, so read on for the analysis behind his selections.
- Senegal To Qualify @ 13/10
- Over 34.5 Match Throw Ins @ 8/11
- Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams To Score @ 6/4
Value in Backing the Lions of Teranga
While Belgium enter this knockout tie as the bookmakers’ favourites, the underlying data suggests a much more evenly-matched contest. Projections indicate a tight game, with a marginal goal advantage for the Belgians that is far from decisive in a single-leg knockout match.
The Red Devils will face a well-drilled, physical, and highly capable Senegal outfit. This represents a significant step up in quality from their group stage opponents, and Belgium could find it difficult to break down a side that is tactically disciplined and dangerous in transition.
The ‘To Qualify’ market presents an interesting value proposition. Belgium’s odds imply a 62% probability of progression, which seems high for a match with such fine margins. In contrast, Senegal’s price suggests a 44% chance, offering a more appealing angle for a game that could plausibly go either way, potentially requiring extra time or penalties.
If this fixture unfolds similarly to Senegal’s high-scoring group match against Norway, an end-to-end affair could be on the cards. In a shootout scenario, either nation has the attacking quality to prevail. Therefore, siding with the longer odds on Senegal to advance appears to be the most logical play.
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Throw-In Market Offers Solid Angle
A look at the throw-in market reveals a compelling statistical trend for both teams. This is expected to be a hard-fought battle for possession across the pitch, a scenario that typically leads to a higher number of stoppages and, consequently, more throw-ins.
During the group stage, both nations ranked among the highest for throws won. Belgium were fifth overall, averaging 23 per game, while Senegal were just behind in sixth with an average of 22.33. The tournament-wide average of 36.75 throws per match already sits comfortably above the line of 34.5 set here.
This bet landed in two of Belgium’s three group games. Notably, their match against Egypt, which was their most competitive fixture on paper before this tie, produced a total of 47 throws. A similar pattern emerged for Senegal, with the bet also winning in two of their three matches.
The most relevant comparison is Senegal’s group game against Norway, where the 1×2 odds were similar to this upcoming clash with Belgium. That match saw a total of 36 throws, which would be enough to see this selection win. Given the high stakes and tactical battle expected, a high throw count is a reasonable expectation.
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Goals Expected at Both Ends
Both teams have demonstrated considerable attacking prowess, suggesting that a high-scoring encounter could be on the horizon. Belgium shook off a slow start to the tournament with a 5-1 demolition of New Zealand, while Senegal booked their place in the knockouts with a 5-0 victory over Iraq, finishing the group stage with eight goals.
Underlying data highlights Senegal’s clinical finishing. They scored their eight goals from just 5.25 Expected Goals (xG), indicating they are lethal in front of goal and do not require a high volume of chances to score. Belgium, meanwhile, scored six goals from a higher 6.79 xG, showing they create plenty of opportunities.
Defensive vulnerabilities also point towards goals. Senegal conceded six times in their two group stage defeats to European opposition. Belgium, for their part, have a high defensive line that can be exploited and failed to keep a clean sheet against both Egypt and New Zealand. With attacking talent like Sadio Mane, Ismaila Sarr, and Kevin De Bruyne on the pitch, both defences will be severely tested.
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