Brazil, Germany, and the Netherlands have already set the tone for an explosive start to the knockout stages this summer. Despite a clear trend of goals flowing freely, the markets seem convinced we are in for a tight, defensive set of fixtures.
What is happening to the goal markets?
The newly introduced Round of 32 has kicked off with plenty of final-third action, yet expectations remain surprisingly low for the upcoming ties. Across the first seven knockout matches, four saw both sides find the back of the net, including action-packed encounters like Brazil’s 2-1 victory over Japan and a 1-1 draw between Germany and Paraguay.
This early flurry of goals directly mirrors the start of the knockout phases in the last two global tournaments. While historical data stretching back to 1998 points towards cagey affairs when the group stages conclude, the modern reality is far more entertaining.
The table below highlights just how consistent both teams scoring has been during the knockout phases of recent international showpieces.
| Tournament | Round | Both Teams To Score Yes Strike-Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 2022, Qatar | Round of 16 | 6/8 |
| 2022, Qatar | Quarter Final | 3/4 |
| 2022, Qatar | Semi Final | 0/2 |
| 2022, Qatar | Final | 1/1 |
| 2018, Russia | Round of 16 | 6/8 |
| 2018, Russia | Quarter Final | 2/4 |
| 2018, Russia | Semi Final | 1/2 |
| 2018, Russia | Final | 1/1 |
The numbers behind the story
The current competition is delivering remarkably consistent attacking output. Across all fixtures so far, teams are registering a massive 24.52 shots per 90 minutes, translating to a highly healthy 2.51 expected goals (xG) per 90. That volume of chances is yielding real results, with matches averaging 2.93 goals per 90.
When we look at the initial knockout matches from the past two global events, the defensive caution usually associated with sudden-death football simply vanishes. In 2022, the opening knockout round produced 27 goals at an average of 3.38 per game. Four years prior, it was a similar story, with 24 goals scored at exactly 3.0 per match.
Crucially, 75% of those initial knockout ties across both tournaments saw both teams score. The expansion to a Round of 32 this summer means we are seeing more mismatches in quality. Defences that scraped through the group stages are now being exposed by elite forward lines, making clean sheets incredibly hard to come by.
The betting angle
Despite this clear attacking trend, bookmakers have priced ‘Both Teams to Score – No’ as the favourite in 6 of the remaining 9 ties in this round. The markets are leaning heavily on long-term historical data, creating a potential opportunity to back ‘Both Teams to Score – Yes’ at prices better than 1/1.
With 55.26% of all matches this summer already seeing both sides score, opposing the low-scoring thesis could offer genuine value. Will the attackers continue to punish cautious oddsmakers as the tournament progresses?
