Hearts have a huge deficit to overcome as they host Benfica in the second leg of their Europa League qualifiers. The Scottish side lost 6-1 in Portugal last week, but they will still want to give the home fan base something to cheer about in Scotland this evening.
The positive for Hearts is that they can still be in Europe even if they lose, as they will drop down to the Conference League qualifiers, so it’s really important that they pick up a positive result at home against European opposition to build some momentum ahead of the next qualifier.
Our betting experts can share their betting tips for the match, and we can also share over £250 in free bets via sign up offers from UK betting sites.
Hearts vs Benfica Free Bets & Betting Offers
There are a fair few European matches on this evening, as well as competitive action across the weekend, with a full round of Scottish Premiership football, as well as the start of the EFL seasons.
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Hearts vs Benfica Betting Tips
Hearts welcome Benfica to Tynecastle on Thursday, 13th August for the second leg of their Europa League qualifier, facing a monumental task after a 6-1 defeat in Lisbon. Read on for our expert analysis and betting tips for the return fixture.
Benfica Primed for Another Victory
Even with a commanding 6-1 aggregate lead, Benfica are clear favourites to win the second leg in Edinburgh. The current market odds imply a 69% probability of an away victory, and it is notable that no other visiting team in this round of Europa League qualifying has been priced at shorter odds.
The first leg highlighted the significant gap in quality between the two sides. Benfica registered an expected goals (xG) figure of 2.65 to Hearts’ 1.20, while also dominating possession and the shot count with 24 attempts to the Scottish side’s 10. The scoreline could have been even wider, as the Portuguese hosts missed four of their eight designated big chances.
While Hearts pieced together an impressive unbeaten home record in the Scottish Premiership last season, their form in Europe tells a different story. Their only other continental home fixture this term was a 0-2 defeat to Sturm Graz, a match where the Austrian side created five big chances to nil, demonstrating Hearts’ vulnerability against higher-calibre opposition.
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Goals on the Cards at Tynecastle
With the tie all but settled, this second leg has the potential to be an open and high-scoring affair. Hearts have little to lose and will be determined to restore some pride in front of their home supporters, which should lead to an attacking approach from the outset.
Benfica’s recent matches under manager Marco Silva have been filled with goals. Three of their four competitive fixtures this season have seen four or more goals, with those games producing an average of 4.75 goals. Their defensive frailties were exposed in a recent 2-2 draw with newly-promoted Academico Viseu, yet their attacking threat remains potent, having generated 3.15 xG in that same match.
Hearts’ own games this campaign have also been goal-friendly, with their five outings averaging 4.0 goals per game. The Over 3.5 goals bet has been successful in three of those five matches. After a convincing 4-0 domestic win against Dundee at the weekend, Wouter Vrancken’s side will carry some renewed attacking confidence into this fixture.
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Early Action Expected in Edinburgh
Given the context of the tie, there is value in backing both teams to find the net in the first half. With Benfica holding an unassailable lead, their defensive focus may be reduced, creating opportunities for a Hearts side playing for pride at home.
The first half of the opening leg in Lisbon was particularly active, even though this specific bet did not land. Benfica launched 15 shots in the first 45 minutes alone, with seven hitting the target. More significantly, Hearts generated a respectable 0.81 xG in that period, which was more than double the 0.39 xG they created in the second half.
Now playing at Tynecastle, Hearts are expected to be more assertive from the start and should be able to capitalise on the chances they create. An early goal for the hosts could spark an entertaining response from a Benfica side that possesses overwhelming attacking quality, making for a lively opening period.
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