The first knockout fixture of this year’s World Cup sees Co-Hosts Canada face South Africa in Los Angeles on Sunday evening. Canada are the favourites for the round-of-32 tie, although you can’t rule out South Africa after they shocked South Korea in their final group match.
Check out our betting tips for South Africa vs Canada, and also see how you can get over £250 in free bets for the World Cup.
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South Africa vs Canada betting tips & predictions
South Africa and Canada meet at the SoFi Stadium on Sunday, 28th June, in a match that will decide the who will be the first nation through to the round-of-16. You can find our expert analysis behind the selections right here.
- Canada to Qualify @ 1/3
- Over 8.5 Shots For South Africa @ 4/5
- Thapelo Maseko – Shot On Target From Outside The Box @ 7/1
Canada’s Quality to Prove Decisive
Despite surrendering top spot in their group and the home advantage that came with it, Canada are rightly positioned as favourites to advance. The North American side possesses superior individual quality throughout their squad, which should be the decisive factor in this knockout tie.
Neither nation has prior experience in the knockout stages of the tournament, but Canada’s participation in the 2022 finals provides them with valuable recent exposure to this level of competition. In contrast, South Africa’s last appearance was as hosts in 2010, highlighting a significant gap in elite-level experience.
Canada’s attack is spearheaded by Jonathan David, who has been one of the most effective forwards in the competition, registering an impressive 2.59 expected goals (xG) across three matches. His clinical finishing, alongside the threat of Cyle Larin, gives Canada an attacking edge that South Africa may struggle to contain, especially considering Bafana Bafana have averaged just 0.87 xG per game.
While South Africa have shown resilience, the offensive firepower of the Canadians is expected to see them through. Their 6-0 victory over Qatar in the group stage demonstrated their capability, and that attacking prowess is the primary reason for backing them to qualify for the next round.
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Bafana Bafana to Show Attacking Intent
After a timid start to the tournament, South Africa have displayed far greater attacking ambition in their subsequent matches, a trend that could lead to a healthy shot count against Canada. Backing them to have at least nine shots in the match offers good value.
In their opening 2-0 defeat, Hugo Broos’s side adopted a defensive posture and managed only three attempts on goal. However, they shifted their approach to secure a place in the knockout rounds, registering 17 shots in their 1-1 draw with Czechia and 13 shots in the crucial 1-0 victory over South Korea.
Canada’s defence has been relatively solid, not allowing any opponent to reach the nine-shot mark thus far. However, this will be their first match of the tournament outside of their home country, which introduces a new variable. The match being played in Los Angeles removes a significant advantage for the Canadians.
Furthermore, with Canada priced as the odds-on favourite to win, the game state could play into this bet. If South Africa fall behind, they will be forced to push forward in search of an equaliser, likely increasing their shot volume significantly, much like they did against Czechia when they fired eight shots after the 75th minute.
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Maseko a Threat From Distance
Thapelo Maseko has been a standout performer in South Africa’s impressive run to the knockout stage, and his willingness to shoot from range makes him an interesting candidate in the player props market. The odds for him to register a shot on target from outside the box are particularly appealing.
After not featuring in the opening loss, Maseko was a key figure in the team’s revival. Against Czechia, he had three attempts, two of which came from outside the penalty area. He was even more influential against South Korea, scoring the decisive goal and recording four shots, with another two from long range.
While none of his four attempts from outside the box have yet tested the goalkeeper, his intent is clear. He consistently looks to challenge from distance, and it feels like a matter of time before he directs one on target. Given his form and attacking role, the price of 7/1 represents excellent value for a player who is central to his team’s offensive strategy.
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