- Punters prioritise odds and trainer reputation, but 28.46% still pick based on horse names and 12.71% back horses based on silks colour.
- MyBettingSites analysis shows favourites win 31.40% of the time, while odds-on favourites boast a 54.35% success rate.
- Horses picked purely on superstition underperform compared to those selected using form-based stats.
- Despite statistical advantages, many punters still trust their ‘lucky’ methods over logic.
As punters gear up for the final day of the Cheltenham Festival, a new study has put the age-old debate to the test: do cold, hard stats trump gut instinct when it comes to picking a winner? Or can luck-based selections – like backing a horse because of its name or jockey’s silks – prove just as profitable?
A data-led analysis by MyBettingSites of past Cheltenham races and a survey of over 1,500 sports fans, aged 18+, across the UK and Ireland has revealed fascinating insights into whether form-based punting or ‘vibes-based’ betting delivers better results at one of the biggest festivals in racing.
The Study: Science vs Superstition
The research analysed key betting trends at Cheltenham over the past decade, tracking the success rates of different selection methods, including:
- Form-led punting: Horses chosen based on ratings, trainer form, jockey stats, and track record.
- Superstitious selections: Horses backed based on non-performance factors like name appeal, silks colour, birthdays, or ‘lucky numbers.’
A survey of over 1,500 punters commissioned by Censuswide was also conducted to determine the most common Cheltenham betting strategies and the perceived success of each approach. The findings revealed that:
- 32.43% of all respondents said odds were the biggest deciding factor in picking a horse.
- 30.38% prioritised the trainer’s reputation, showing the importance of stable success.
- 28.46% admitted to picking a horse based on its name, with this being most common among the 18-24 age group (38.54%).
- 28.26% chose horses based on the jockey, particularly among male punters (38.97%).
- 26.27% of respondents stated that they don’t engage in horse selection at all.
- Superstition still plays a role, with 12.64% choosing horses based on their race number and 12.71% picking based on jockey silks colours, a method far more common among younger age groups.
The Results: Are Stats the Real Secret?
Some key findings from the study include:
- According to MyBettingSites analysis of Cheltenham Festival results from 2015 to 2024, outright favourites had a strike rate of 31.4%, with 81 winners out of 258 runners.
- Odds-on favourites performed even better, winning 54.35% of the time (25 out of 46), suggesting a strong correlation between form-based betting and success.
- Horses backed purely based on name recognition had a lower strike rate compared to those chosen using form-based statistics.
- Despite these figures, a significant percentage of punters admitted to using ‘lucky’ methods, with many still believing in the power of superstition.
A spokesperson for MyBettingSites said: “Cheltenham is as much about superstition as it is about strategy, but our findings suggest that data-driven punting holds a real edge.
“While some punters swear by lucky numbers and horse names, history shows that backing form and stats consistently yields better results.
“Whether you follow the science or trust your gut, one thing is certain – Cheltenham’s unpredictability is what makes it such a thrilling spectacle.”
