Arsenal host Sporting CP for the second leg of their Champions League quarter-final this Wednesday, holding a narrow 1-0 aggregate lead and you can check out over £200 in free bets via sign up offers below.
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Arsenal vs Sporting CP betting tips
Our betting expert has analysed the stats and key matchups, so read on for the analysis behind his selections.
- Under 2.75 Asian Goal Line @ 5/6
- 1st Half Result – Arsenal @ 5/6
- Arsenal to win, both teams to score and Gyokeres to score anytime @ 6/1
Cagey Encounter Expected in North London
Sporting face a significant challenge in trying to break down Arsenal at the Emirates. The Portuguese side have not been prolific creators in this competition, ranking 21st in the Champions League for expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes with an average of just 1.49.
This was evident in the first leg where they registered a mere 0.71 xG from their 11 attempts. The task becomes even more difficult considering the defensive standard set by Mikel Arteta’s team throughout the tournament.
Arsenal possess the best expected goals against (xGA) per 90 figure in the competition at just 0.75. This metric highlights them as the toughest side to generate high-quality scoring opportunities against.
Furthermore, ‘Both teams to score – No’ has been a winning selection in 64% of Arsenal’s Champions League matches this season. Their 1-0 victory in Lisbon was their seventh clean sheet in 11 games, a figure no other team has matched, making a low-scoring affair a strong possibility.
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Arteta’s Side to Take Control Early
It’s worth siding with Arsenal to establish control of this tie in the first half. They have a tendency to start quickly in home European fixtures and have led at half-time in four of their last six matches in this competition.
The Gunners average 0.91 first-half goals per game in the Champions League, which is significantly more than the 0.27 they concede. After a more cautious approach in the first leg, a pattern also seen against Leverkusen in the previous round, expect them to apply early pressure at the Emirates.
Sporting CP’s away form in the opening 45 minutes reinforces this selection. They are yet to lead a Champions League away game at half-time this season and have conceded an average of 1.2 first-half goals per match on their travels.
Expect Gyokeres to haunt his old side
Sporting, buoyed by a strong domestic run but needing to overturn a first-leg deficit, will likely abandon the conservative approach seen in Lisbon to test an Arsenal backline that has looked uncharacteristically shaky in recent domestic outings.
While the Gunners’ superior squad depth makes them favourites to progress, the narrative centres around Viktor Gyokeres, who joined Arsenal from Sporting last summer and has already netted 18 times for his new club.
Facing his former teammates for the second time in a week, the Swede is perfectly placed to exploit the gaps left by a desperate Sporting side. Expect a high-stakes encounter where both teams find the net, but Arsenal’s clinical edge and Gyokeres should carry them through to the final four.
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