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Premier League preview
The final Premier League match of the gameweek is on Monday night, as Sunderland aim to move back into the top eight, while Burnley need a win to boost their chances of Premier League survival.
Sunderland vs Burnley (Monday 8pm)
Sunderland’s form at the Stadium of Light has transformed the ground into a genuine fortress, which could prove decisive in Monday night’s clash against Burnley. Regis Le Bris’ side remains unbeaten in 11 league matches on home turf, fueling talk of a potential undefeated season at home. This run is anchored by impressive resilience against elite competition, having held title contenders like Arsenal, Manchester City, and Aston Villa to draws, while ruthlessly securing five wins from six matches against sides in the bottom half of the table.
Defensively, the Black Cats have been remarkably disciplined, conceding an average of just 1.13 goals per game. This record is particularly striking as it outperforms the defensive statistics of several “Big Six” clubs, including Liverpool and Manchester United.
In stark contrast, Burnley have found their return to the Premier League to be an uphill battle. Scott Parker’s side currently holds the worst expected goals (xG) metric in the division at a mere 1.95, highlighting a severe deficiency in creating high-quality scoring opportunities. Their defensive struggles are just as pronounced, with the Clarets shipping an average of 1.91 goals per game.
Burnley’s away form is a specific cause for concern, with the team losing eight of their 11 matches on the road and conceding 2.45 goals per trip. Although they managed a 2–0 victory over Sunderland at Turf Moor earlier this season, facing Le Bris’ unbeaten home side in the Northeast presents a far more intimidating challenge than their previous encounter.
Given the stark contrast in momentum, a 2–0 victory for Sunderland feels like the most logical outcome. The stats suggest that while Sunderland’s defense is robust, allowing just over one goal per game, Burnley’s sheer lack of creative output (that league-low 1.95 xG) makes it difficult to see them breaking through more than once, if at all. Furthermore, Burnley’s tendency to concede nearly two and a half goals per away trip plays right into the hands of a Sunderland side that has become expert at dispatching struggling teams at home. While Burnley might take some confidence from their win earlier in the season, the “Stadium of Light factor” and their own defensive fragility on the road likely point to a comfortable night for the Black Cats.
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Burnley given little chance of Premier League survival
Sunderland and Burnley were both promoted to the Premier League last season, but they are having very different campaigns. The Black Cats are in a battle for a top-half finish, whilst Burnley are in a relegation battle.
Wolves are the favourites to go down with betting sites, whilst Burnley are just behind Rob Edwards’ side in the betting markets. It’s no shock to see Burnley given such a low chance of survival, as they have not won a Premier League match since the 26th October. West Ham, Leeds and Nottingham Forest complete the top five favourites for relegation.
| Premier League teams | bet365 Premier League relegation odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Wolves | 1/500 | 98% |
| Burnley | 1/25 | 96% |
| West Ham | 2/5 | 71% |
| Leeds | 11/2 | 15% |
| Nottm Forest | 7/1 | 12% |
bet365 Premier League sign-up offer – Key Terms
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