It’s a historical evening for Crystal Palace as they battle to make it to their first ever European final. They have a 3-1 lead against Shakhtar Donetsk, and with the second leg at Selhurst Park, Oliver Glasner will be hoping that they can produce a similar display to the one at home against Fiorentina to get the Eagles to Leipzig.
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Crystal Palace vs Shakhtar Betting Tips
Crystal Palace host Shakhtar Donetsk at Selhurst Park on Thursday, 7th May for the second leg of their Conference League semi-final, holding a 3-1 aggregate lead. Our betting expert has analysed the key stats and tactical angles for this fixture, so read on for the analysis behind his selections.
Palace Primed to Exploit Counter-Attacking Openings
Crystal Palace carry a significant 3-1 advantage into this second leg, a result built on their counter-attacking prowess in the away fixture. While a win isn’t a necessity for progression, the tactical blueprint that proved so effective against Shakhtar is well-suited to delivering another victory.
The onus is on the visitors to chase the game, which should play directly into Oliver Glasner’s strategy. In the first leg, Palace generated an expected goals (xG) figure of 2.20 from just 29% possession, a clear indicator of their efficiency in transition.
Shakhtar arrive with an unbeaten record across nine European away games this season, but this fixture represents a step up in quality. Palace demonstrated their lethality a week ago and are also in the middle of a seven-match unbeaten run at Selhurst Park, a sequence where they have conceded an average of just 0.14 goals per game.
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Sarr key for Palace, but Shakhtar will strike back
With a two-goal cushion, Crystal Palace are the firm favourites to reach the final, but Shakhtar’s need to attack from the outset could see them get on the scoresheet. The Ukrainian side is expected to adopt an all-or-nothing approach, which may leave them exposed but also increases their chances of scoring.
Despite the first-leg defeat, Shakhtar were not without their moments, generating 1.15 xG from 16 shots. Their primary issue was a lack of clinical finishing, with only one of those attempts hitting the target, something they must rectify to have any hope.
Palace’s defensive record in Europe reveals a potential vulnerability, particularly in the period just after half-time. The Eagles have conceded eight of their 11 Conference League goals this season in the 15 minutes immediately following the break.
Meanwhile, Ismaila Sarr has been the standout performer for Crystal Palace in their European campaign, with eight goals in the Conference League making him one of the competition’s top scorers. His contributions have been central to the club’s progress to the semi-finals.
The Senegalese forward is in excellent form, having found the net five times in his previous four European appearances. He set the tone in the first leg by opening the scoring inside the first minute, showcasing his ability to make an immediate impact.
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