Eurovision 2025 Semi-Final 1 Betting Tips and Preview

Our betting expert has three tips for the first 2025 Eurovision Song Contest semi-final on Tuesday night (8pm). Scroll down for the analysis behind his selections.

By Luke Seychell

Eurovision semi-final 1 Betting Tips

• Slovenia not to qualify for the final @ 4/6 with Paddy Power
• San Marino to qualify for the final @ 1/1 with Sky Bet
• Portugal to qualify for the final @ 6/1 with bet365

Sweden dominate betting for first semi-final

The annual music jamboree that is the Eurovision Song Contest takes place this week with the now established format of two midweek semi-finals leading up to the grand final on Saturday night.

Switzerland is hosting the festival this year after winning the competition for a third time in Sweden last year.

The Swedes jointly hold the record for most victories with Ireland on seven and the odds suggest they could move into the lead with another victory this year. 

Sweden are the even-money favourites to win the overall competition with Paddy Power with a song that differs greatly from the polished pop that has been successful for them before. 

KAJ perform Bara Bad Basta, a fun sing-a-long tune about saunas. It doesn’t sound like an obvious winner but the kids will love it and it has been a clear leader in the polls on fan sites as well as the betting markets.

They will be performing in the first semi-final, so there are no worthwhile betting opportunities in the outright market on Tuesday’s show. Sweden are 1/7 with Paddy Power to win the first semi-final with Estonia 7/1 while 16/1 and upwards is available on every other act.

Instead, the best bets have to be on which acts will qualify for the final. The top 10 from each semi go through to join the big five nations and the hosts, making a field of 26 for Saturday’s spectacle.

Nine nations in the first semi-final have odds of 1/4 or shorter to make the final with the top five of Sweden, Estonia, Ukraine, Albania and the Netherlands all 1/50 and lower.

Slovenia’s qualification could go either way according to the bookmakers as they are 10/11 to go through and 4/6 to miss out and the second option is preferable.

The song How Much Time Do We Have Left is by Klemen, who is a TV host rather than a full-time singer, and the subject matter is not the most cheery as it’s about his wife’s cancer treatment.

An early draw in the running order is also a negative factor as Slovenia will be the third act on and audiences can tend to forget the first songs they saw when voting comes around.

• Eurovision semi-final 1 tip 1: Slovenia not to qualify for the final @ 4/6 with Paddy Power

Everybody needs good neighbours

Italy used to be able to host two rounds of the F1 World Championship each year when the San Marino Grand Prix was held at Imola and they’ve arguably got two entries in this year’s Eurovision.

The San Marino entry, Tutta L’Italia is performed by Italian DJ Gabry Ponte and was originally written as a theme for the Sanremo Music Festival. The dance track proved so popular he entered the San Marino Song Contest and it must have a decent chance of getting the tiny nation through to the final for the first time in four years.

Ponte was formerly part of the Eurodance band Eiffel 65, who had the massive hit Blue (Da Ba Dee) in 1999, so he knows something about a catchy tune. It should get a big vote from Italy at least and may get enough support from elsewhere to qualify.

• Eurovision semi-final 1 tip 2: San Marino to qualify for the final @ 1/1 with Sky Bet

Outsiders Portugal should not be written off

For an outside bet on an act to make the final, Portugal have some appeal at 6/1. 

Napa offer a chance of pace from the prevalent power ballads and high-energy pop with a more chilled-out acoustic sound on Deslocado and it’s worth noting that Portugal have made the final in each of the last four years, finishing in the top 10 of the final in 2022 and 2024.

• Eurovision semi-final 1 tip 3: Portugal to qualify for the final @ 6/1 with bet365