Germany face Paraguay in the first knockout round of the 2026 tournament in Philadelphia on Monday, 29th June at 9.30pm. The European side are the heavy favourites for the fixture, with the winner of this match facing France or Sweden in the Round of 16.
We can share our betting expert’s top tips for this match, and we can also reveal World Cup offers from some of the UK’s best new betting sites, all in one place.
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Germany vs Paraguay Betting Tips
Our betting expert has analysed the key stats and tactical matchups, so read on for the analysis behind his selections.
Germans Tipped for Knockout Progression
Germany’s surprise defeat to Ecuador came in a dead-rubber group-stage fixture, with top spot in Group E already secured. Although the underlying numbers in that match were underwhelming, the stakes are entirely different in the knockout rounds, where a much-improved performance should be expected.
Julian Nagelsmann’s side are one of only three teams to have scored 10 or more goals at the tournament, alongside France and the Netherlands. They also lead that trio in expected goals (6.76 xG), a tally that ranks fourth overall in the competition. This attacking potential alone suggests Germany have more than enough quality to secure their place in the next round.
In stark contrast, Paraguay have lacked an edge going forward, producing just 1.10 xG across their three matches. This figure is the second-lowest value recorded in the competition so far, highlighting a significant gap in offensive capabilities between the two nations.
Paraguay has also shown very little defensive stability, allowing their opposition a stunning 60 shots across three games. Their 4.14 xGA (expected goals against) makes them one of the weakest defensive sides in the competition, and Germany possess the tactical discipline to capitalise heavily on these gaps.
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High-Press Tactics Point to a Physical Encounter
Under Julian Nagelsmann, Germany adopt an aggressive approach to defending. They operate with an extremely high defensive line and aim to win possession back quickly, with their attacking players contributing significantly to the tackle count.
This tactical style is reflected in the statistics from the tournament so far. Germany’s matches have seen an average of 42.33 tackles per game, and the Over 35.5 line has been successful in two of their three fixtures. The only exception was the 7-1 win over Curacao, which still saw 35 tackles.
Paraguay will likely be under pressure for long periods, forcing them into defensive actions. Gustavo Alfaro’s side have exceeded the 20-tackle mark in all three of their matches at this tournament, demonstrating their willingness to engage physically when out of possession.
This bet has landed in Paraguay’s last two matches, including the 0-0 draw with Australia which was played at a much lower intensity. With the heightened stakes of a knockout fixture, there is clear potential for an even higher tackle count when they face Germany.
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Attacking Firepower to Secure Victory
Before their inconsequential defeat to Ecuador, Germany were on an impressive run of 11 consecutive victories. During that streak, the team scored over 1.5 goals in 10 matches, while the game featured over 2.5 goals in nine of those fixtures, making this combination a familiar outcome.
Germany’s attack has been one of the most potent in North America, scoring a joint tournament-high 10 goals. They have been clinical, converting 18.87% of their attempts and registering 22 shots on target, a figure matched only by France. This efficiency in front of goal will be key against a deep-lying Paraguayan defence.
While Paraguay have struggled offensively, scoring just two goals from a low 1.10 xG, Germany’s defence has shown some vulnerability. They have conceded four goals from just seven shots on target against them. This suggests that if Paraguay can create one or two clear-cut chances, they could contribute to the overall goal count.
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