The shock sacking of Robert Jenrick from the shadow cabinet has led to a major shake up in the latest betting for both the next Conservative leader and the next Reform leader.
Jenrick stood against Kemi Badenoch in 2024’s race to become leader of the Conservative Party, ultimately losing out in a members’ vote, before being appointed as Shadow Secretary of State for Justice and Shadow Lord Chancellor.
However Badenoch has now taken the decision to suspend him from the Party, for apparently planning to defect to Reform.
A statement from Badenoch explained, “I have sacked Robert Jenrick from the shadow cabinet, removed the whip and suspended his party membership with immediate effect. I was presented with clear, irrefutable evidence that he was plotting in secret to defect in a way designed to be as damaging as possible to his shadow cabinet colleagues and the wider Conservative Party”.
Jenrick has duly gone on to join Reform UK. He remains ambitious and so is now quoted to become leader of either of the two Parties.
Next Conservative leader betting odds
Many feel Robert Jenrick hadn’t given up hope of taking over from Kemi Badenoch as the next Tory leader, despite losing out to her in 2024.
Before his sacking and suspension from the Conservatives, he had been clear favourite to step in, perhaps as soon as the summer if local elections were below expectations.
The updated odds tell a very different story now, with Jenrick eased from Evens to as big as 20/1 – in percentage terms, that’s a drop from 50% to just 5%.
James Cleverley now heads a very open betting market at 9/2.
| Candidates | Next Conservative leader odds | Implied Probability |
| James Cleverley | 9/2 | 18% |
| Katie Lam | 8/1 | 11% |
| Claire Coutinho | 20/1 | 5% |
| Rupert Lowe | 20/1 | 5% |
| Boris Johnson | 20/1 | 5% |
| Robert Jenrick | 20/1 | 5% |
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Next Reform UK leader betting odds
If Jenrick’s hopes of becoming the next Conservative leader are seemingly in tatters, his chances of following in Nigel Farage’s footsteps have massively improved. Prior to his defection, Jenrick was a 20/1 outsider to become the next leader of Reform UK, but he’s now the 4/1 joint favourite, alongside Richard Tice.
| Candidates | Next Reform UK leader odds | Implied Probability |
| Robert Jenrick | 4/1 | 20% |
| Richard Tice | 4/1 | 20% |
| Danny Kruger | 5/1 | 17% |
| Zia Yusuf | 6/1 | 14% |
| Rupert Lowe | 11/1 | 8% |
| Lee Anderson | 16/1 | 6% |
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Where can I find odds on the next Reform UK leader?
Several of the UK’s best betting sites are now offering odds on who might replace either Kemi Badenoch or Nigel Farage as leader of their respective parties. We’ve highlighted some of the options below, alongside their new customer sign-up offers. You can take advantage of these welcome offers and unlock free bets when you open an account.
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