Premier League champions Arsenal travel to the City Ground to face a Nottingham Forest team struggling to convert chances into goals. Can Arsenal keep the heat on Manchester City, or will Forest throw a spanner in the works? Read on for our analysis alongside the best free bets to use on the Super Sunday encounter.
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A Routine Arsenal Win, With Goals to Come
Forest arrive with one win from their opening seven competitive matches and have yet to score a single home league goal all season, while Arsenal have bounced back from a shock loss at Brighton, a defeat where the underlying numbers actually favoured them, with wins over Leeds and Lille.
On paper this looks one-sided, and Arsenal’s status as the league’s fourth-best attack, with 10.81 xG and 10 goals to their name, backs that up. They’ve also failed to score in only one of their last 18 matches across all competitions, so there’s little reason to expect a repeat of the goalless draws Arsenal have left this ground with in their last two visits.
Forest’s own numbers point the same way. They’ve managed just five goals from an expected 10.3 this season, the worst attacking underperformance in the league, which suggests their home drought has more to do with bad luck than a lack of chances. A side creating that much shouldn’t stay blank forever, and Arsenal’s defence, solid as it is, hasn’t been able to keep a clean sheet in every away fixture this season.
Put Arsenal’s attacking reliability together with Forest’s overdue correction and the picture that emerges is a comfortable away win accompanied by a goal at the other end, rather than the tight, low-scoring affair the head-to-head record alone might suggest.
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal tip 1: Arsenal to Win & Over 1.5 Goals in the match @ Evens
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal tip 2: Arsenal to win & both teams to score @ 13/5
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