Tournament favourites France take on surprise package Paraguay in the Round of 16 on Saturday, 4th July, with a 10pm kick-off time in the UK. Les Bleus have been in imperious form, while Paraguay progressed after a shock penalty shootout victory over Germany.
We can share our betting expert’s top tips for this match in the round of 16, and we can also reveal World Cup offers from some of the UK’s best new betting sites, all in one place.
Paraguay vs France Betting Offers & Free Bets
With the World Cup into the Round of 16, now is the perfect time to sign up to some of the best new betting sites in the UK to make full use of their sign up offers.
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Paraguay vs France Betting Tips
Read on for the full analysis behind our expert’s selections.
France’s Path to the Quarter-Finals Looks Clear
France have justified their status as tournament favourites with a series of dominant displays, and their 3-0 victory over Sweden in the last round only shortened their outright odds. With a squad led by superstars Kylian Mbappé and Michael Olise, their price to win in 90 minutes is extremely short, making the ‘To Qualify’ market the most viable angle for this fixture.
Paraguay have relied on their defensive strengths to reach this stage, culminating in a remarkable 1-1 draw and subsequent penalty shootout win against Germany. Despite conceding the majority of possession and shots in that match, they held firm. However, they now face arguably the best attack in the competition.
The underlying metrics suggest Paraguay’s run may be coming to an end. Their 1.46 expected goals (xG) across four matches is the fourth-lowest at the tournament, while their 0.36 xG per 90 minutes is the second-worst. Against a French defence that kept a capable Sweden side scoreless, it is difficult to build a case for anything other than a comfortable progression for the European side.
While the last meeting was a 5-0 friendly win for France in 2017, a more measured victory is expected here. The data overwhelmingly points towards a France win, and the ‘To Qualify’ selection covers any unlikely need for extra time or penalties.
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High Throw-In Count Expected in Philadelphia
Paraguay’s defensive and disruptive style of play has seen them force more throw-ins from their opposition than any other team at the 2026 finals. Facing a France team that presses high and utilises quality in wide areas, the conditions are set for a high throw-in count.
The statistics are compelling. Paraguay are forcing an average of 26.75 throws per game from their opponents, a figure significantly higher than the tournament average of around 18. Consequently, their matches have averaged 44 throw-ins, with three of their four contests easily surpassing the 31.5 line.
The only exception was the match against Germany, which saw 30 throws in normal time. While France are also expected to dominate possession, their dynamic and direct forward line should put Paraguay’s defence under far more intense pressure, likely leading to more clearances being put out of play.
France themselves contribute to this market, forcing an average of 19.5 throws per game from their opponents. In their group stage match against Iraq, where they were also priced as heavy favourites, the game produced 32 throws. The combination of Paraguay’s defensive actions and France’s attacking patterns makes this an appealing statistical bet.
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Les Bleus Tipped for Dominance from the Start
France have been the most efficient attacking side in the competition, with their key players consistently delivering. Kylian Mbappé has already scored six goals, while the creative output of Ousmane Dembélé and Michael Olise has proven too much for every opponent they have faced so far.
While Paraguay’s defensive stability was impressive against Germany, it was exposed during a 4-1 defeat to the USA in the group stage. The attacking quality of France is on another level entirely, and their ability to start matches strongly is a notable trend. This bet was a winning selection in three of France’s four games at this tournament.
The underlying data reinforces France’s attacking superiority. No team has registered more shots on target than their 34. They face a Paraguay side that has conceded the most shots in the competition (81), and with France converting an impressive 17.81% of their attempts, it suggests Paraguay will struggle to hold them at bay in either half.
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