The Catholic Church is preparing for a conclave to select a new pope after the passing of Pope Francis. While papal elections are famously unpredictable, millions of Catholics around the globe are eager to see who will be chosen as their next leader. With the conclave starting on 7th May, find out who the betting odds suggest will become the next pope, as well as the papal name that’ll be chosen.
Next Pope Betting Odds
| Name | Country | Odds | Odds as % |
| Pietro Parolin | Italy | 5/2 | 28.6% |
| Luis Antonio Tagle | Philippines | 10/3 | 23.1% |
| Peter Turkson | Ghana | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Matteo Zuppi | Italy | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| Robert Sarah | Guinea | 9/1 | 10% |
| Pier Battista Pizzaballa | Italy | 11/1 | 8.3% |
| Peter Erdo | Hungary | 14/1 | 6.7% |
| Kevin Farrell | Ireland | 25/1 | 3.8% |
| Jose Tolentino de Mendonca | Portugal | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Fridolin Ambongo Besungu | DR Congo | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Jean-Marc Aveline | France | 33/1 | 2.9% |
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Next pope betting: Favourites to replace Pope Francis
If the latest betting odds are anything to go by, two names have emerged as clear frontrunners to become the next pope – Pietro Parolin and Luis Antonio Tagle.
Cardinal Parolin, currently serving as the Vatican’s Secretary of State, has been a key figure in delicate negotiations, including the Holy See’s agreement with China over the appointment of bishops. His extensive diplomatic experience and centrist stance make him a strong candidate likely to garner widespread support within the Church.
Meanwhile, Cardinal Tagle (pictured below) is celebrated for his charismatic and pastoral leadership style. As the head of the Vatican’s missionary evangelisation efforts, he has been instrumental in expanding the Church’s influence across Asia and Africa. If chosen, he would become the first Asian pope in history, a landmark moment for the Catholic Church.
Beyond the two main contenders, there’s also speculation about the possibility of electing the first black pope in modern times. In that scenario, Cardinal Peter Turkson would likely feature prominently. Known for his advocacy on social justice, economic inequality, and environmental issues, especially climate change, Turkson would represent a progressive choice for the Church’s future direction.
How to bet on who the next pope will be
Betting on the next pope is straightforward as a number of online betting sites are offering odds.
- Sign up with one of our recommended betting sites. Sky Bet and Paddy Power are two of the bookmakers currently offering new pope odds.
- Make your first deposit – typically this can be as little as £5.
- Navigate to the betting market for the next pope. On both Paddy Power and Sky Bet, this can be found under ‘current affairs’, while other UK betting sites may list the odds in their ‘specials’ category.
- Find the cardinal which you’d like to bet on, and add him to your betslip.
- Decide your stake and place your bet.
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Next Papal Name: Pope Francis II on the cards
Once elected, the new pope will choose a papal name. Historically, more conservative popes have opted for traditional names, as seen with Pope Benedict XVI, while Pope Francis broke new ground by choosing a name in honour of St Francis of Assisi. UK betting sites including Ladbrokes have had a go at issuing odds on the papal name of the next pope.
The most likely outcome is that the new pope will also choose Francis like his predecessor, meaning he’d be referred to as Pope Francis II. Other options towards the top of the papal name betting include the names of recent popes, John Paul and Benedict. It is somewhat surprising to see Stephen figuring so highly, given the last Pope Stephen passed away in 1282, well over 700 years ago. Most other popular options would be seen as nods to previous popes, while it’s seen as a less than likely 33/1 that the first ever Pope Donald could be installed in the weeks ahead.
| Papal Name | Odds | Odds as % |
| Francis II | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| John Paul III | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| John XXIV | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Benedict XVII | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Leo XIV | 10/1 | 9.1% |
| Paul VII | 10/1 | 9.1% |
| Gregory XVII | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| Stephen X | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| Clement XV | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| Pius XIII | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| Donald | 33/1 | 2.9% |
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Total ballots: Lengthy process expected before decision on next pope
In addition to betting on who will become the next pope, some online betting sites are offering extra markets to get involved with. With BetMGM, you can bet on how many ballots it will take before a new pope is elected. The most popular betting range is between five and eight ballots. Meanwhile, it’s priced at 20/1 for a pope to be chosen after just one or two rounds of voting, suggesting that the process is likely to unfold over several days.
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New Pope: What happens next?
Before the process of selecting the next pope could fully get underway, a final tribute was paid to Pope Francis, born Jorge Mario Bergoglio, during his Papal funeral. Cardinals from across the globe have now begun arriving at the Vatican, where they are charged with the solemn duty of electing Francis’ successor. Only cardinals under the age of 80 are eligible to vote, with a two-thirds majority required before a new pope can be officially named.
Tradition dictates that after each round of voting, the ballots are burned. Black smoke rising from the Sistine Chapel signals an unsuccessful vote, while white smoke heralds the election of a new pope.
