Paris Saint-Germain welcome Chelsea to the Parc des Princes for a blockbuster Champions League first-leg tie this Wednesday, March 11th. With a place in the quarter-finals at stake, our betting expert has analysed the form and key stats, so read on for the full breakdown behind his selections and check out over £200 in free bet offers.
PSG vs Chelsea betting offers & free bets
With Champions League football this week, now is a great time to sign up to UK betting sites, and that’s not the only football on midweek, with Europa League and Conference League action also taking place.
If you want to use your free bets on other sports this week, then it’s the perfect time to do so as well, as Cheltenham Festival is on this week, so there’s a bunch of races to bet on.
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PSG vs Chelsea betting tips
Expect Goals in Paris
The reigning European champions, PSG, are arguably the most potent attacking force in the competition, yet their defensive record consistently leaves the door ajar for opponents. An incredible nine of their 11 Champions League matches this season have produced over 2.5 goals, with those fixtures averaging a sensational 4.09 goals. Having secured just two clean sheets in that spell, it’s clear that Luis Enrique’s side prioritise attack over defence on the European stage.
Under new manager Liam Rosenior, Chelsea have developed a similar reputation for entertaining but defensively frail performances. The Blues have kept just one clean sheet in nine away matches under his tenure, with that solitary shutout coming against Hull. This has forced Chelsea to effectively outscore their opponents to get results, a strategy reflected in their prolific average of 2.78 goals per game during that same period.
The recent FA Cup tie against Wrexham was a prime example, as the Championship club twice took the lead against a disorganised Chelsea backline. If they afford a team of PSG’s quality the same kind of opportunities, the hosts will almost certainly take full advantage and contribute heavily to the goal tally, making them a daunting prospect for the visitors.
This market has also been a consistent winner in Chelsea’s European travels this term, with Over 2.5 goals landing in all four of their away Champions League fixtures. With PSG boasting the highest expected goals (xG) in the tournament, all signs point towards a goal-laden evening in the French capital.
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Parisians to Edge Thriller Despite Leaky Defence
Despite a recent domestic wobble, PSG will be highly motivated to establish a first-leg lead at the Parc des Princes, particularly as they seek to avenge their Club World Cup final defeat to the Londoners. Expect the hosts to dominate possession and apply relentless pressure, making them a solid pick to win the match outright on home soil.
However, a PSG victory with a clean sheet looks far less likely. The Parisians have looked defensively vulnerable throughout their European campaign, managing to shut out their opponents in just two of their last ten Champions League games. English teams have already proven they can score here this season; Tottenham found the net three times while Newcastle earned a hard-fought 1-1 draw.
This paves the way for a confident Chelsea side to make their mark. The Both Teams to Score market has landed in eight of the Blues’ last ten matches across all competitions, and with Joao Pedro in scintillating form, they possess the cutting edge to breach the Parisian defence. The Brazilian has fired in six goals in his last five appearances, spearheading an attack that looks more than capable of scoring.
Considering the last Champions League meeting at this venue ended in a 2-1 PSG victory, backing a repeat of a home win without a clean sheet offers excellent value. It aligns perfectly with the recent form and underlying statistics of both clubs.
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