Check out our Real Madrid vs Benfica betting tips and offers ahead of their crucial Champions League knockout playoff tie.
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Real Madrid vs Benfica Tips
Our betting expert has three Real Madrid vs Benfica tips for Wednesday’s Champions League clash at the Santiago Bernabeu (kick-off, 8pm). Scroll down for the analysis behind his selections.
- Thibaut Courtois Over 3.5 Saves @ 1/1
- Nicolas Otamendi to be booked, Red Card in the match & Under 3.5 offsides @ 17/2
- Vangelis Pavlidis Over 2.5 Shots @ 11/8
Benfica could keep Courtois busy
Real Madrid’s narrow first‑leg 1-0 win did little to disguise their defensive vulnerability as the match in Lisbon saw Benfica generate several dangerous moments before Vinicius Junior’s winner.
The Eagles registered three shots on target and could exceed that amount in Madrid if the Spanish side cannot shut the game down.
Of the 36 teams in the competition from the league stage onwards, Madrid have faced the seventh-most shots on target per 90 minutes – on average more than 6.5 per match.
Only the Bodo/Glimt goalkeeper has made more saves than Thibaut Courtois with the Madrid custodian averaging 5.13 per 90 minutes in Europe.
The Belgian has been one of the Spanish giants’ most reliable performers in the Champions League this season and made some key interventions in the first leg, including one impressive stop from a Fredrik Aursnes piledriver.
With his side determined to defend a slim lead and Benfica likely to commit numbers forward, the goalkeeper should again be heavily involved.
And given he has needed to make at least four saves in all four of Madrid’s home Champions League games this season, Courtois to make over 3.5 stops appeals.
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Red card drama could continue in a heated second leg
The first leg was marred by controversy with various unsavoury incidents during and after the game, heightening tensions between the clubs.
Things could boil over again in Madrid with one of the clubs facing elimination and it would be no surprise if referee Slavko Vincic has his work cut out to keep the peace.
Madrid had two players sent off against Benfica in Lisbon when the sides met in January, while manager Jose Mourinho received his matching orders last week for the Portuguese outfit.
Nicolas Otamendi, who has been walking a disciplinary tightrope since he collected his second yellow card on Matchday Four, is a candidate for another caution for the visitors.
Last week, the Argentine was seen raising his shirt to show off his tattoo of the World Cup he won four years ago in an attempt to goad Vinicius, and will no doubt be given a warm welcome by the home fans for that.
Finally, add fewer than four offsides into the Bet Builder for this clash of clubs that rarely stray into offside positions.
Benfica’s players have only been caught out 10 times in their nine games in the competition while Madrid have only been flagged seven times to date.
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Pavlidis poised to exploit Real weakness
Benfica could look to play longer passes up to Vangelis Pavlidis in an attempt to bypass what is likely to be an intense Madrid press.
The Greek striker had a quiet night at Estadio da Luz last week, failing to get a shot off in the 90 minutes.
But he has registered at least three shots in seven of his last 10 appearances for the Eagles, including in two of his last three Champions League games.
Madrid have faced an average of 15.33 shots per game in the competition, 22% more than they did last season, so there could be ample opportunity for Pavlidis to fire off over 2.5 shots if that trend continues.
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