Our UFC expert has three UFC 313 predictions and betting tips for Saturday’s huge card in Las Vegas (08/03/2025).
Alex Pereira attempts to make a fourth straight defence of his light heavyweight title against Magomed Ankalaev.
The card is stacked with attractive fights, including the co-main event of Justin Gaethje v Rafael Fiziev and exciting talents including Mauricio Ruffy.
UFC 313: Pereira v Ankalaev Betting Tips
- Pereira v Ankalaev: Under 4.5 rounds @ 1/2 with BetMGM
- Justin Gaethje to win @ 13/10 with BetMGM
- Mauricio Ruffy to win by KO, TKO or DQ @ 19/20 with BetMGM
All odds are courtesy of BetMGM, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
A tough test expected for Pereira
Despite his unbeaten five-fight run at light heavyweight, there is no doubt that this is Alex Pereira’s toughest task to date.
The Brazilian racked up three straight title defences in 2024, winning all by knockout against Jamahal Hill, Jiri Prochazka and Khalil Rountree Jr.
The 37-year-old has taken the sport by storm since switching over from kickboxing, standing as a two-division UFC champion after just 10 fights.
Ankalaev is on an 11-fight winning streak and fought for the vacant title against Jan Błachowicz in 2022. After a split draw in that contest, the 32-year-old had to rebuild to regain his number-one contender status.
A brutal uppercut KO of Johnny Walker last January followed by a unanimous decision win over Aleksandar Rakic in October was enough to put him back in an undeniable position.
Although he has become known as a striker, the Dagestan fighter has an elite sambo wrestling background, which could prove tough for Pereira to handle if Ankalaev were to adopt a grappling-heavy approach.
Having made the switch from kickboxing, Pereira has always been playing catch-up with his ground game, and barring his 205lb debut against Błachowicz, he has largely been able to keep standing.
Interestingly, Ankalaev doesn’t have a single submission win in his professional career, but he does have six knockouts in 11 UFC fights.
Pereira has seven knockouts from his nine wins in the UFC and cannot be written off. A win for either within the distance under 4.5 rounds is appealing.
UFC 313 Tip 1: Pereira v Ankalaev: Under 4.5 rounds @ 1/2 with BetMGM
Gaethje to provide another highlight
Fireworks are expected when Justin Gaethje (25-5-0) and Rafael Fiziev (12-3-0) meet again.
This fight was thrown together at short notice after Gaethje’s original opponent Dan Hooker withdrew through injury less than two weeks ago.
Fizivev steps in after nearly 18 months out of action after tearing his ACL in the second round of his September 2023 match with Mateusz Gamrot.
Six months earlier, Gaethje and Fiziev met for the first time in London, with the American coming out on top in a closely fought split decision.
Gaethje has fought twice since, winning the BMF title by knocking out Dustin Poirier in July 2023, before losing the belt when being knocked out in the final second of the fight by Max Holloway at UFC 300 last April.
Both men are bonus machines with Gaethje winning performance or fight of the night in 11 of his 13 UFC fights, while Fiziev has earned a bonus in six of his eight bookings.
Expect both men to go to war to entertain the fans once again and Gaethje offers plenty of value as an underdog.
UFC 313 Tip 2: Justin Gaethje to win @ 13/10 with BetMGM
Ruffy to be ruthless
As eye-catching strikers go, Mauricio Ruffy (11-1-0) looks to be one of the more exciting UFC prospects and he will get a good test against veteran King Green (32-16-1, 1 NC).
The Brazilian is 2-0 inside the Octagon, taking out Jamie Mullarkey in the first round on home on his debut in May.
The 28-year-old dominated James Llontop over three rounds in his second fight in November but didn’t get the finish against a durable opponent who was much heavier after missing weight in what was already a catchweight bout.
Now back at 155lbs, expect Ruffy to pick up where he left off, with his low-hand karate stance that is reminiscent of an early Conor McGregor.
Green is a wily veteran but is 3-2 in his last five, suffering first-round losses to up-and-coming fighters Paddy Pimblett and Jalin Turner. The 38-year-old’s recent wins have come against older fighters, in particular Jim Miller and Tony Ferguson.
Green keeps his hands low and as the knockout he suffered at the hands of Turner showed, his reflexes are not what they used to be. Ruffy can showcase his skills and take the scalp of a former ranked lightweight contender.
UFC 313 Tip 3: Mauricio Ruffy to win by KO, TKO or DQ @ 19/20 with BetMGM
