The Catholic church is currently preparing for a conclave to elect a new pope, following the death of Pope Francis on Sunday 21st April. Although conclaves are historically unpredictable, millions of Catholics across the world will be curious as to who’ll become their new leader. With that in mind, let’s take a look at some of the most likely contenders to be chosen for the role, alongside all the odds for who will be the next pope.
Next Pope Betting Odds
Name | Country of birth | Odds | Odds as % |
Pietro Parolin | Italy | 15/8 | 35% |
Luis Antonio Tagle | Philippines | 3/1 | 25% |
Matteo Zuppi | Italy | 7/1 | 13% |
Peter Turkson | Ghana | 8/1 | 11% |
Peter Erdo | Hungary | 10/1 | 9.1% |
Pierbattista Pizzaballa | Italy | 12/1 | 7.7% |
Jose Tolentino | Portugal | 20/1 | 4.8% |
Robert Sarah | Guinea | 20/1 | 4.8% |
Fridolin Ambongo Besungu | DR Congo | 22/1 | 4.3% |
Kevin Farrell | Ireland | 25/1 | 3.8% |
Raymond Leo Burke | USA | 25/1 | 3.8% |
Angelo Scola | Italy | 25/1 | 3.8% |
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Who are the favourites to replace Pope Francis?
If the latest odds on next pope are to be believed, there are two contenders that are well clear of the rest – Pietro Parolin and Luis Antonio Tagle.
Cardinal Parolin is known for his involvement in sensitive negotiations, including the Holy See’s Agreement with China on bishop appointments. Parolin has served as the Vatican’s Secretary of State since 2014, and his extensive experience positions him as a centrist candidate who would be expected to have broad appeal across the Church.
Cardinal Tagle is recognised for his charisma and pastoral approach. As the head of the Vatican’s missionary evangelisation office, he’s played a significant role in promoting the Church’s mission in Asia and Africa. His election would mark the first time an Asian ascends to the papacy.
Of the other Cardinals in the reckoning, there will inevitably be much speculation over the prospect of appointing the first black Pope in modern history. Should the conclave move in this direction, Cardinal Peter Turkson would be expected to come under serious consideration. Turkson is known for his work on social justice, economic inequality, and environmental issues, most notably including climate change.
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Next Pope: What happens next?
Before the process of deciding the next pope can truly begin in earnest, respect will be paid to Pope Francis, born Jorge Mario Bergoglio, with the Papal funeral set for Saturday at 10am local time, which is 9am in the UK.
Cardinals will then begin to arrive at the Vatican from around the world, with the task of choosing who the successor will be. Only cardinals aged under 80 are allowed to cast votes, with two-thirds of the total votes cast needed before a cardinal can be announced as the next pope.
Famously, the ballots are burned after each vote, with black smoke released from the Sistine Chapel to signify each time the cardinals have tried and failed to elect a new pope. Eventually, a new pope will be successfully chosen, with white smoke released to mark this significant moment.
The newly elected pope will then choose a new name. More conservative cardinals tend to choose a traditional name, as happened with Pope Benedict XVI, while the most recent pope became the first to choose Francis, in honour of St Francis of Assisi.