Donald Trump has emerged as a serious contender for the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, with betting sites listing him as favourite to win the prestigious award as recently as this week. However, despite the temporary surge in momentum, his odds have drifted in recent days, though the controversial American President remains second in the latest betting.
Nobel Peace Prize betting odds
Earlier this year, Trump’s odds stood at 11/1. That changed dramatically earlier this week, when he briefly shortened to just 13/5, following a series of international developments. Most notable was a temporary ceasefire between Iran and Israel, which some credited to Trump’s backchannel diplomacy and influence over regional allies.
Multiple public nominations added fuel to speculation, including endorsements from US Republican lawmakers. Pakistan’s interim government also put forward Trump’s name, a move that signalled a wider international interest in recognising his role in recent diplomatic efforts.
Yet, just as quickly as the odds tightened, they began to widen again, with Trump back out at 7/1 after Oleksandr Merezhko, the head of Ukraine’s parliamentary foreign committee, withdrew his recommendation.
| Nobel Prize contenders | Nobel Prize odds | Probability |
| Yulia Navalnaya | 13/5 | 37.8% |
| Donald Trump | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Philippe Lazzarini | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| Greta Thunberg | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| UNESCO | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| International Court of Justice | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| International Criminal Court | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| NATO | 14/1 | 6.7% |
| Jose Andres | 14/1 | 6.7% |
The easing of Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize odds mean we have a new favourite in the form of Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. Her continued activism in the wake of her husband’s death has drawn worldwide admiration and significantly boosted her chances of receiving the award.
While Paddy Power’s odds are 13/5, William Hill make her the odds-on favourite, reflecting a growing belief that the Nobel Committee may use this year’s prize to honour pro-democracy movements and political courage, especially in the face of Russian aggression.
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Trump’s Longstanding Interest in the Nobel Prize
This isn’t the first time Trump has spoken about winning the Nobel Peace Prize, nor is it the first time he has felt overlooked. During his presidency, he repeatedly claimed that his administration deserved the honour for orchestrating peace agreements, such as the Abraham Accords between Israel and several Arab states.
“No, I won’t get a Nobel Peace Prize no matter what I do,” Trump said in a campaign rally, echoing sentiments he has voiced since at least 2019.
Trump is well aware that Barack Obama is a former winner of the prize, awarded in 2009 “for his extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples”. Unsurprisingly, Trump was unimpressed, stating, “They gave it to Obama. He didn’t even know why he got it. I’ve actually made peace happen.”
Indeed, Trump has increasingly tried to position himself not just as a dealmaker, but as a peacemaker. His supporters often cite his avoidance of new wars during his presidency and his foreign policy as evidence of a more restrained global posture, though critics argue that this came at the cost of global alliances and stability.
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